Public opinion on the China-Taiwan tensions is complex, focusing on military strategies and the potential global ramifications of an escalating conflict. Concerns are predominantly about the catastrophic economic impact, particularly in the tech sector due to Taiwan's crucial role in semiconductor manufacturing. There's skepticism about China's ability to sustain a prolonged conflict against the US, given perceived technological and logistical disadvantages, yet recognition exists of the widespread consequences a conflict could trigger, including broader geopolitical tensions.

China

Taiwan

United States

Well for one thing, the availability of microchips suddenly becomes catastrophic since Taiwan currently manufactures the lions share of them worldwide.

Mr_Badger1138

Wouldn't be the first time China defeated the US Military in the field of battle.

[deleted]

The US would not deploy the entirety of its assets in range at the same time, seeing as this would put them at too much of a risk. Eggs and baskets and all that. 11 carriers, 3 of those in the area. 

Each of those carriers has an entire group of naval assets attached to it. You'd have to get \*very\* lucky to destroy them all. If one group got hit, the others would go evasive. US wargames about exactly this scenario always played out the same; 1-2 carriers lost or heavily damaged but, ultimately, chinese defeat. You really cannot ignore the technological, training, experience and numerical edge the US still enjoys.

Hypersonics aren't that impressive - a Patriot battery took down a Kh47M2 this year. For all its progress, China just doesn't have as deep a high tech weapon stockpile as the US does, and ballistic missiles are VERY visible on sensors, prompting instant defensive posture in any military targets in the area. SM-3 and SM-6 missiles both have a chance of knocking DF-21 or DF-26 out in mid-flight. Not so much during terminal flight. 

So IF China managed to score some significant hits, especially on the carriers,   
  
\- they still wouldn't be enough to cripple US pacific presence   
  
\- they would invite massive and concerted retaliation and a very steep and sudden decline in chinese ship and aircraft numbers.   
  
Think B-52, B-2, B-21, F-35 all doing what they do best at standoff ranges. Granted, if Guam is taken out, that would only leave Japan as a major air operations node. 

Sure, DPRK, Iran, Russia, probably Hungary and some other authoritarian-aligned nations would call it the ultimate humiliation of the US. The US would use it as a recruitment tool and a justification to get funding for more carriers from congress. Even if NATO had somehow been kept out of the conflict through magic and wishful thinking, the members would sanction the absolute hell out of China, it would be politically isolated, and Joe Biden would grin because he relaunched microelectronics production in the US. 



TL;DR: Chinese missile forces cheer as a large part of the US fleet is damaged, US response comes, Chinese missile forces are gone. Then China takes a nosedive in international relations and trade.

ClassroomPitiful601

The result of this what if depends entirely on how much military capacity China looses in this conflict.

Worst case scenario for China: If China looses a ton of ships, missiles, planes, soldiers and commanders while also having industrial centers bombed and economy devastated by sanctions I think a few things happen. Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and the Philippines would blockade the eastern coast of China. This coalition would partner to restrict Chinese trade and prevent a new military build up while taking positions in contested waters. India would use this loss to pressure China on their contested land boarders and establish itself internationally as the leader of the global south. The United States would start paying or bullying countries to rip up Chinese equipment in the global south and land troops at overseas basses that had ever hosted Chinese military vessels. I would also expect separatist in Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Xianjaing Province to be flooded with weapons and intelligence to further deplete Chinese capabilities.

If this is a clean win where a lightning invasion takes the Americans by storm and we are unable or unwilling to protect Taiwan in any meaningful way then I would expect a very different result. Assuming China leaves the conflict with a mostly in tact military and its economy secure I think Japan, Australia and South Korea would immediately go in high alert. I could see all three nations expanding their militaries and developing nuclear deterrence capabilities. The Philippines and Vietnam can expect to have their contested territory fully militarized by China. I would also expect China to quickly surpass Russia as the non western arms manufacturer and seller of choice.

Globally I would expect the price of semiconductors to fall dramatically as Chinese companies replicate the methodology used in Taiwan to build microprocessors. At least temporarily, until the lack of western supplies, software and design slows cutting edge chip progress. For a brief period the global south will have excess to a huge surplus of computing power at low cost and will likely develop really unique solutions because of this technology.

The UN would become basically useless as an organization and the US dollar would face serious headwinds as investors are shaken by American inability to protect its foreign assets. Political polarization would explode around foreign policy with many Americans feeling lost while others call for nuclear strikes on Chinese cities. Whatever president was in office during the loss would face massive backlash and the opposing party would win a massive victory in the next election.

I would also expect the US to refocus and modernize its military based on why the lost the conflict.

Finally there would be widespread instability as leaders formerly contained by the threat of US military might started to act more rashly in their regions.

A lot more would happen lol, but these are the things that immediately come to mind.

112322755935

I think I misunderstood it to be honest. Makes sense

TrumpsCheetoJizz

The US and China going to war, even if a mini proxy style Korean War, would be disastrous for the global economy. But, if China succeeds in its invasion, and America underestimates its ability, the world would be put in a complete shock. Those already questioning American might would now be propelled forth to abandon any niceties that remained. China truly then becomes a rival great power to America. 

That’s not saying America isn’t capable of destroying China, but I’d imagine the American public would not be so keen on millions dying for Taiwan, and would likely drag the nation into a more isolationist position globally, with politicians focusing on either destroying the economic link with China, or those who would try and restore it completely.

But in the end, nato, and America, still exist, and America is still the worlds greatest power, but China now has a solid position as a new rival, making the world once again a bipolar split between the two blocs. 

Most likely case I see: the task force is destroyed, Americans are mad and sad but not wanting to send more sailors to die over some Chinese island. America withdraws but ups military in other Asian holdings. The people eventually realize they can’t live without cheap Chinese manufacturing and eventually elect a politician who is pro-repairing relations with China.

Loyalist_15

America. Comes back and with having learned. Because if anything our militarybinnovates. And reduces china's practical military to zero. Also. (Hypersonic is not impressive. We have had manned hypersonic vehicles since the 1960s)

AlVal1236

Navy, but everyone will undoubtedly get a piece of this one.

Suspicious-Earth-648

Everyone would be involved pretty equally because if we were in a conflict with china it wouldn’t just be restricted to Taiwan.

powerpointpro

At different stages in the conflict different branches would see more and less “action”. It would start off Air and Space Force, and quickly transition to Navy and Air-force, followed by Marines and Army. 

It would take the Marines and Army a while to get into the fight but once they are in theater they will see combat the likes of which has never been seen before.

Also this conflict will set the world back in terms of quality of life( even if it does not go nuclear).

This scenario makes me think of Sir Edward Greys statement “lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time” but it would be for the world.

Jayu-Rider

If your first thought is "Marines", then the correct answer is The Navy.

An invasion of Taiwan could be a significant enough development that we would draw down some of our naval presence in the Mediterranean or even the Atlantic Ocean (provided there isn't anything hot going on there at the same time). 

Either way, the Pacific Fleet would suddenly become the most powerful fleet on earth, and the most powerful its been since the end of WWII. 

If you're asking what uniform the guys throwing lead down range are wearing, then yeah - probably the Marine Corps.

airborngrmp

Space Force would see the most of the action... observing it with their spy satellites from mainland US.

HungerISanEmotion

USMarine_Ret

Strictly speaking, the branches would see "action" in the following order:

1. Space Force.  Space assets are a bedrock of modern warfare and, like it or not, the USSF is critical even now; let alone for a major conflict.  A lot of the stuff they would do, they're actually already doing.  And doing it well, I might add.
2. Navy via its cruise missiles.
3. (actually, a tie at #2)  A mix of services' SOCOM-managed SOF
4. Air Force, along with Navy and USMC air assets via their long-range munitions
5. Everybody else, 2 months later when they're able to mobilize ground forces.  That said, I don't see us putting BOG in Taiwan; it's too escalatory with China, and I don't think the American public would tolerate significant loss of life for a part of the world that most Americans don't GAF about.

This is off-the-cuff so, admittedly, I might come up with something different if I chewed on this for a while.

Edit:  forgot about the services' cyber forces.  They're tied with Space Force for #1.

blues_and_ribs

This would spark WW3, I don’t see anyone getting left out.  The Navy would play a gigantic roll early on though

EverythingGoodWas

SirFister13F

Navy/Marines because of their capabilities and positioning in the Pacific.

DooDiddly96

Navy, we won’t be invading China and Taiwan has plenty of people.   They will need sea and air support.  Air Force too.

NewHampshireAngle

7th Fleet is based out of Japan. It would respond immediately. An entire carrier battlegroup enters the fray. Immense force projection. 

&amp;#x200B;

3rd Fleet from Pearl would make all available steam immediately. That is at least one more carrier battlegroup in the AO within 5-7 days. 

&amp;#x200B;

Naval assets from the Atlantic would be on alert, and make steam through Panama Canal post hast to reinforce Pearl Harbor. 

&amp;#x200B;

All available carrier space would be allocated to transport aircraft from USN, USMC, USAF, to Pacific Theatre Far East Command AO during these ship movements.

&amp;#x200B;

If hostilities continue past a few months, and / or USN forces take appalling losses, expect US Congress to authorize a new [Two Ocean Navy Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-Ocean_Navy_Act), to fund the building / reactivation of 200+ naval vessels. Within two years, US naval construction surpasses the rest of the world, twofold. [Henry Kaiser](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_J._Kaiser) would be proud.

&amp;#x200B;

Crosspost this to r/NonCredibleDefense for more!

machinerer

The Marines have already been training for island campaigns, so I say it would be them.

Admirable_Tailor_614

Depends on what the conflict turns into. Does the US decide that the government in China is harmful to the safety of the world and needs to be taken out in an extended land campaign? Then army. Is it a purely defensive conflict to help Taiwan remain independent? Then Navy. Do we leave it to the Taiwanese and pull a Ukraine? Then probably airforce.

MortalEnzyme

GodHatesPOGsv2023

Mephisto1822

Notonfoodstamps

Look… the Marines are sexy, devil dogs and killers to the general populace… the USMC is amazing at projecting their image and message. But at the end of the day, they’re whole purpose is to set up a beach head. There are so few marines that they couldn’t see that much action compared to other branches because they just are made for massive force on force engagements. They’re only made for assaults. For perspective, I work in a US Army Corps HQ. That corps itself has double the combat capability and numbers that the whole USMC does. And the US Army has multiple Corps. So the Navy and Army would win the war. The Air Force and Marines are just there for support and niche roles.

If China hit landfall, the Navy would send in the Marines to do the good Lord's work. 

The Navy already has a blockade in place. China doesn't want war with the US. It's pretty much a stalemate currently.

Navy and Air force. There was a video where a retired Taiwanese general talked about one Taiwan strategy is to just deny access to the island. So that means bombing the shit out of Chinese navy and fighting over air superiority. 

I think the army would be more involved than the Marines, Taiwan is an established island, this will not be island hopping or involving specialized “island campaigns.”

Everyone will be involved, but I definitely think the Navy and Air Force would take the initial biggest role.

Farados55

Most likely Navy (Directly) first as unlike say Desert Storm where we got to pick the start time and could front load a shit ton of AF assets in the area this would likely go by the time window set by China, in parallel id suspect SF, AF, and all Intel departments would be involved pretty much immediately. After that more resources would be brought in &amp; requirements would likely be shared around. I saw another comment saying AF Stealth Bombers would be early resources and given they are Nuclear Capable I don't know if they would be held back to prevent risk of mis-reading it as a Nuclear attack.

Jess_S13

puto1

Would depend on the goals. Likely Navy and Air Force more than the land based forces.

We fight in a joint environment.  Ships at risk. Aircraft at risk. Troops on the ground at risk.  American public at risk.

Clherrick

Okay China! You don't have to ask on here, just call up Gen Milley, he'll let you know our plans.

user_1729

Supporting an opposed landing with a logistic chain stretched out over open water is difficult on a good day. 

China is going to have to do it at night though, because the harpoon and SM-2 missiles being fired at their ships are going to block out the sun.

Also, just a fun fact, the 3 gorges dam is within range of taiwan's surface to surface missile batteries. Taking it out would result in more destruction of life, infrastructure, and industry than a nuclear strike. We're talking casualties in the millions, as well as losing up to a third of all arable farmland and up to half of their industrial capacity.

If taiwan ever hits the point where they face a serious existential threat from china, they already posess the capability to make the destruction mutual *without* having a nuclear program.

In order of priority/Intended effects...

1. USSF (multidomain awareness and C4ISR)
2. USN (should be obvious, but enforcing/contesting blockades, strike and counterstrike)
3. USAF (Mobility, Strike and Air Superiority over contested air space)
4. USMC (advisory and combat support to Taiwanese)
5. USA (not even really sure beyond technical advisors what they would offer, fire support? I guess a lot depends on the scale of the conflict...)

Honestly, if the Army was engaged in more than a technical support role I would be concerned. If we have "boots on the ground" that (IMO) would mean the war has gotten a tad out of control.

Magus_5

Hard2Handl

Tybackwoods00

zeocsa

BlueWolf107

Why do you think they've been hyping/training the MLR and littoral tactics?

dionyszenji

hellequinbull

The Chairborne Legion of Armchair Generals

acevizit

I’ll tell you what my LtCol said

This fight will make us see combat in the likes that have never been seen before, and we will secure the Marine Corps’ legacy for the next hundred years

Marines and Navy as they have the most assets in the area and can get there the fastest.

jellies56

The US Navy and Marine Corps pilots at first, with follow up air strikes from the Air Force. Ground combat forces will only operate if one side or the other completes air superiority. And that’s all on the assumption that tactical nuclear weapons are not used on either forces.

pennywise1235

Toss up between the USAF and USN. Both would be there on day one.

USA and USMC would arrive on day two.

Nobody gets out without a bloody nose.

kyflyboy

MannikkoCartridgeCo

US Navy and US Marines would be the first but all would join the fight. You would see our Carrier Battle Groups setting sail for that.

Whole idea would be to batter down China Air Defense systems and Air Force. Get Marines on the island to block by block destroy the Chinese.

All would be hell because China is literally right there. You would have to literally launch waves of cruise missiles to decimate them on the shores and stop them from advancing more assets to the region.

From there all goes South. China has a pretty large nuclear arsenal. Would they use it? Who knows the answer to that.

Any defeat has massive consequences on China. They would be cut off from the worlds momentary system. A Naval blockade would commence. China believe it or not only 12% of there land is able to be used to grow food. They require dramatic resources imported on a yearly basis that is beyond what Americans conceive of. They slaughter about 400 million pigs yearly.

Its fascinating while the USA can easily sustain itself food production wise we can not manufacturing wise since the world makes our products. Anything we design they make. China can out manufacture anyone but they cannot ingeniously feed themselves.

Then the technological stone age we will have after. TMSC is in Taiwan. 100% of Apples processors, Nvidia, AMD and many more are made by them their. They are building plants outside of Taiwan but there not up to scale yet. Nearly every motherboard manufacture is in Taiwan. Literally the cell phone industry most of the tech industry would grind to a halt. China makes all the rest of the tech the world uses from a watch to a smart phone to a smart thermostat.

The other thing to understand is a war like that would spill over. China and India hate each other. China goes down they most likely would mess with India with some Nukes. India would respond in kind they have a large nuclear arsenal. The only people other then Americans that the Pakistanis hate more are the Indians so be time to make them pay as well.

Then you have South Korea and North Korea. Well North Korea with a distracted USA and since there on decent terms with China might believe its time to fight again. They got nukes.

Oh lets not forget that nearly all of Asia while hating each other they all agree they hate the Japanese for WW2. Memories run eons with the Asians so China probably turn Japan into glass with zero interest in even owning that place. Japan butchered like 30 million Chinese in concentration camps during WW2 and pay back will be via a micro sun over Tokyo. Only Americans get past grudges and move on most certainly not Asians. Contrarty to the happy diverse people of USA most of the world in some way hates each other. In Africa its still very much tribe vs tribe. Go look up Rwanda in the 1990s you need any proof. Millions dead from the machete .. all 2000 year old tribal hatred. That hatred is fascinating as it all started thousands of years ago with cattleman vs farmers. 

All in all hell and by far worse then anything Russia will be doing.

RverfulltimeOne

Initially I think the Navy surface warfare/aviation then the aviation division of every branch.  And I think it would be to close to call between the USAF and Navy in the beginning. Obviously the Navy probably has subs already in the area. If China was dumb enough to attack Taiwan they would have to contend with not just Taiwan. Japan, S. Korea, Philipines and Australia

crewchief1949

Begotten912

Navy and Air Force.  

Also Taiwan is a fortress at this point with a big army and a ton of tech.  Plus USN and USAF support it would not be the easy W everyone thinks.

Tots2Hots

Navy, both for air and sea superiority. 
Airforce doesn’t have the reach

B5_V3

Navy 100% can't really say much more because of opsec but I know navy personal preparing for this exact scenario.

Thenerdtyler2

Navy-Marines mostly others will join if the things escalate.

Prestigious-Ad4520

China has big deck-killing coastal defense that goes way, way past Taiwan itself. No Marines are landing on any beach for a long time. It'll be a long, furious contest for control of naval and air superiority against a foe fighting off of their own coast while we are projecting pretty far from our secure bases.

Navy, by far, will be the most involved. Air Force will be second, and it's not close. Marines will probably get their chance to shine eventually, but not in the initial phase of the conflict.

stubbazubba

Magnet50

Aren’t the Marines literally prepping for this specific thing?

BullStoinks

Probably a toss up between Navy and Air Force. Us Burgerlandians love our fires quite a bit, and those two are fires the military branch. Which ends up being the most used depends on when China waves the white flag I'd wager.

Aleucard

My guess is the Navy, Air Force (and planes owned by other branches) will the doing pretty much all the fighting that America does. They’ll be trying to keep PRC forces from landing in Taiwan and from being resupplied if they do land. 

Any PRC forces who land in Taiwan and get cut off will be obliterated by the Taiwanese. Most Taiwanese males have military training and they won’t be welcoming the PRC forces as liberators.

Air Force and Naval Air Forces. Followed by the Air Force Missile Command.

hospitallers

Marine Corps will be the point of the spear, with Army filling the occupation/clean up role. Both jobs are tough.

mojopyro

A blockade is the most likely option they'll take. It's practically starving Taiwan out and puts the ball in America's court to respond.


If Taiwan retaliates, China responds threefold until the island capitulates, if America doesn't get involved they can get away with it while minimizing damage and damaging Washington's global standing.


If the US does get involved there might be a lot of domestic pressure to end the war and go into an isolationist phase and since American lives aren't immediately threatened unless the US  fights back, there might be little appetite.

Nomustang

Full text:
 
The U.S. election and war in the Middle East are dominating the headlines, but don’t sleep on events in the Pacific. China this week practiced a military blockade of Taiwan that is an all too real future possibility.

Beijing isn’t hiding the drill’s purpose. The Ministry of National Defensesaid the exercise on Monday focused on “sea-air combat-readiness patrol, blockade on key ports and areas, assault on maritime and ground targets, as well as joint seizure of comprehensive superiority.”


Taiwan’s defense ministry tracked some 153 aircraft around the island that China claims as its sovereign territory but is run by a democratic government. Nearly three-fourths of the planes crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s airspace. That sets a new record, according to the American Enterprise Institute’s Dan Blumenthal.

The drill included troops from China’s army, navy, rocket force—and for the first time its Coast Guard. A Coast Guard spokesman told state-run media this was “a practical action to lawfully enforce control over Taiwan island in accordance with the one-China principle.” The drill tested a quarantine that would isolate Taiwan and impede the free flow of goods for an economy dependent on trade for export income and energy imports.

Chinese officials described the encirclement drill as a “firm and mighty punishment” after Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te said it is “absolutely impossible” for China to be the “motherland” of Taiwan, given that the Chinese Communist Party is the younger regime. On Taiwan’s National Day on Oct. 10, Mr. Lai vowed to “resist annexation or encroachment upon our sovereignty.”

Taiwan has to take every military drill seriously, which increases the strain on its aircraft and navy and allows China to test the island’s response and military readiness. Beijing may also be hoping to demoralize Taiwan’s citizens so they will make some accommodation to Beijing’s rule without an invasion or blockade.

Short of Taiwan’s surrender, a blockade may be President Xi Jinping’s preferred option. It would be an act of war against Taiwan but in the first instance without firing a shot. It would force Taiwan and its allies to make some difficult choices. Failure to challenge a blockade would lead to eventual subservience to Beijing. But attempting to run the blockade with food or other supplies would run the risk of a conflict if China’s navy sought to stop and board commercial and U.S. naval vessels.

All of which underscores the urgent need to buttress deterrence against a blockade or invasion. This means more civil defense training and military spending in Taiwan, and faster U.S. weapons delivery. It also means rebuilding U.S. military forces in the Western Pacific, especially long-range missiles. The next U.S. President could easily face a Taiwan crisis.

ReturnOfBigChungus


[Interesting counter analysis from the Lowy Institute](https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/implausibility-taiwan-blockade) from earlier this year. 

&gt; A blockade would also harm China’s own trade. Ships and planes generally avoid war zones. Even if China offered safe passage to ships travelling to and from its ports, Taiwan could nullify this by declaring an exclusion zone, effectively a counter-blockade. The trillions of dollars of trade now passing through the South China Sea would shrink to a trickle. Alternatively, an embargo placed on Chinese trade could achieve much the same effect as a counter-blockade. Unlike Russian oil exports, which are easily concealed, China’s exports of manufactures (including components) could be identified and blocked at multiple points in global production chains. Even if ASEAN countries, for example, were unenthusiastic about enforcing an embargo, they would have little choice but to comply.

&gt; In summary, the idea of a naval blockade of Taiwan is even less plausible than that of a seaborne invasion. Why then, is it getting so much attention? The answer is simple: without a threat of this kind, there is no rationale for spending lots of money on naval power. There is a powerful alliance including the PLA Navy, the congressional representatives of US naval bases and naval contractors, and the Australian boosters of AUKUS, whose livelihoods depend on ensuring that this money keeps flowing. As long as any story about naval power has an audience, they will keep telling it.

shriand

SS: China conducted a large-scale military blockade drill around Taiwan this week, simulating control over key ports and airspace, with a record number of Chinese aircraft crossing into Taiwan’s airspace. The exercise involved multiple branches of China’s military, including the Coast Guard for the first time, and was framed as a punishment for Taiwan’s pro-sovereignty stance. This highlights the increasing tension, as a potential Chinese blockade would force Taiwan and its allies, including the U.S., into difficult decisions about challenging China’s aggression without sparking full-scale conflict.​

&gt;Even if ASEAN countries, for example, were unenthusiastic about enforcing an embargo, they would have little choice but to comply.

Most ASEAN countries will try to remain neutral, why would they be forced to comply ?

BleuPrince

Winged_One_97

This blockade could be countered by imposing a blockade of our own on China.

I_pee_in_shower

There’s no way the US military wouldn’t step in before it even gets to this point. We’d know months in advance if a blockade was coming. Not to mention a full naval blockade would require encircling Taiwan completely beyond just the strait which means the US and Japan would have more than a valid reason to step in to uphold freedom of navigation in international waters.

ixvst01

China needs to test drive a retaliatory blockade.  What happens when the US Navy decides China doesn't get oil, gas, food, fertilizer, or other goods by sea any longer?  How long can they hold out without those things, and are they willing to escalate by sinking US ships and having the US switch from interdiction shipping to just putting grain in out to China on the bottom of the ocean? 

China's economy can't survive without importing by sea.  They would starve pretty quickly.

cathbadh

Who do you think Rimpac is aimed at. Everyone conducts exercise and draws up war plans. 

Magicalsandwichpress

The US wants overwhelming military capability to deter China from making a move on Taiwan, while China wants overwhelming military capability to deter Taiwan from moving to de jure independence under the protection of the US military.

And neither side agrees to what an acceptable and sustainable balance of power looks like in the region.

Meanwhile we get to see this rinse and repeat through these sort of opinions published in news media with no end in sight.

PLArealtalk

If you want ships to be effective in a modern combat environment like a cross-straight conflict would be, you need to make them capable. If you want to make them capable, you have to make them fairly high-performing systems.  If you make them high-performing systems, they will be fairly complex and expensive.  If you want to make a complex, high-performing system *that is also unmanned*, you can expect the costs and complexities to go up.  Uncrewed vessels that perform at the high level needed in a modern combat environment are very difficult to make.


There are good reasons why China has spent the last 20 years building hundreds of manned ships, in broad emulation of the US Navy, rather than millions of UUVs or USVs or "AI drone swarms" or some other such dIsRuPtIvE tRaNsFoRmAtIvE eMeRgInG tEcH techbro pixie dust.  The thinking behind these concepts emerged during a period when all of the focus was on combat against nonstate actors or "rogue states."  They were conceived during a time the DOD wanted weapons systems *explicitly designed NOT to fight a peer competitor,* because that would never happen again for...reasons.  


The idea that you are going to make PLAN miserable with thousands of cheap but mediocre uncrewed vessels is nonsensical.   The idea you can make PLAN miserable with thousands of actually good uncrewed vessels runs into cost problems.  Including UUVs would make it an even dumber idea, as there might be no greater capabilities gap between two types of weapons systems than there is between manned vs unmanned underwater vessels.

NuclearHeterodoxy

Seems to hint at some sort of mad boat rush by China, i thought the prevailing idea was that it would start with a missile/air campaign and only when/if total air superiority was achieved would any ships move. In that scenario operating surface or aerial drones will be very difficult due to a ridiculous amount of Chinese ISR drones/assets covering a small area. There is also going to be major interference/jamming problems unless they are completely autonomous.

Ok-Lead3599

Can you post a summary ?, it sits behind a paywall..

I wonder what the Taiwanese people think about this "hellscape" plan. Given two choices, (a) Taiwan becomes like HK, or (b) Taiwan becomes like Syria or Gaza,  which one will the Taiwanese people choose?

That_Shape_1094

&gt;Hellscape

*USAF flies over battlefield blasting* The Only Thing They Fear Is You *.*

WillitsThrockmorton

&gt;There are some public signs the Hellscape plan is making progress. In March, the Defense Department announced it would spend $1 billion on a program called “Replicator” to build swarms of unmanned surface ships and aerial drones for this very mission. 


Someone involved is an SG1 fan I see.

TaskForceD00mer

They’re gonna implement the American healthcare system on china?

phuktup3

Funny reading stuff like this, and next to it seeing an article about the Constellation program being another massive pork barrel money black hole at risk of derailing and getting cancelled. Seems like the only "hellscape" here is the US military acquisition inefficiency and corruption.

Arcosim

China produced more than 3 million drones last year and exported more than 2 million of them.

If there is a war that can be won with drones, then I think the winner should be China.

Lianzuoshou

&gt;opens with 2027 lie

Article disregarded

Temple_T

Sounds like he had too many Red Alert sessions.

leeyiankun

US: we are a beacon of freedom, democracy, and justice
Also the US: turning another place into hell will be a good beacon.

W2IC

It's funny to see the people who think the US wouldn't intervene or would delay. The whole US force posture is built for this conflict. We know it's the main possible thing to prepare for. 

Expect surprises. Things coming down from space. Electronic warfare capabilities nobody expects. Subsurface drones. Really ugly losses on boats getting ferrying troops. In the first 24-48 hours, massive losses. Possibly on both sides.

The best way to win is not to play.

untranslatable

"When the parents are away, the kids will play."

There are many, many frozen conflicts that exist worldwide where opposing sides have begrudgingly come to statement, often driven by greater powers to do so.   

If the two biggest power blocks in the world put their entire energy and the entire energy of their allies into a conflict, it provides the opportunity for all the frozen conflicts in the world to go hot.

Both the US and China have put conflicts on ice worldwide leveraging their wealth and power.

The lead up to both  WWI and WWII were like great chain reactions that were put into play and leads to a multitude of conflict and reprisals worldwide.  Some related to the greater war at play and some opportunistic chance for smaller powers to settle grievances, seize resources or expand boundaries.

thatisyou

I STG people on reddit are more obsessed with going to war with China than the US actually is at this point.

Antiwhippy

ChezzChezz123456789

Believe either country doesn’t want to escalate this into a direct conflict on each other’s mainland. The west side of Taiwan is more vulnerable but is also strategically important due to TSMC. The eastern side will be likely where US and allies will provide backup. They could blockade using the first islands chain (Japan, Philippines, Singapore). 
However China could start by potentially attacking the Kinmen islands far closer to mainland and salami slicing similar to how Russia started with Crimea in 2014.

hinterstoisser

Probably need some war gaming experts to figure out how this happens. It could fail spectacularly before it even gets going. 

The attack would be preceded by weeks/months of troop and maritime assets gathering which cannot be hidden given the scale involved.

Without significant control of the air, any assault likely fails. So a "logical" (not a war expert), starting point would be Chinese tactical strikes on Taiwanese radar and anti-air assets and airfields. Then the hope would be that Taiwan would be unable to launch strikes against the port and vessels in China and also to take down significant Chinese air assets. 

Assuming this goes reasonably well, it probably then moves to the airborne assault (probably at least 3 fronts along major cities on the West coast) Even assuming some degree of degradation of the anti-air defenses there is a likelihood of significant losses. Meanwhile China could not afford to lose more than a few of their large amphibious landing vessels to ground launched anti-ship missiles, submarine launched torpedoes/cruise missiles and air launched bombs/missiles. 

All of this needs to happen under very likely great intelligence and surveillance from US, Japan and Taiwan radars, satellites, aircraft and ships. And the US may have a vessel or two near the Taiwan strait which makes a difficult choice for China. To reduce losses to an acceptable level, China might have to pre-emptively strike at the US forces nearby. Depending on how this goes, China might never gain any sort of air superiority and this means no airborne assault and a very desperate battle on the seas even before landing anyone on Taiwan.

And all of this assumes somewhat regular rules of engagement - China doesn't bomb cities and, in return, Taiwan doesn't bomb cities because China could not possibly evacuate the 100m people or so living in Shantou to Xingde (which would be fairly easily in range of short range missiles/rockets) and in Shenzhen and possibly even Shanghai (which is likely within reach of a Tomahawk like cruise missile)

Therein lies an asymmetry that works against China. While Taiwan probably has 200km of coasts to defend, China has 2000km of coastlines and a billion people living there. Things can go awry in a war - Taiwan might launch an attack on Chinese cities and that might result in huge civilian casualty numbers.

phiwong

I would imagine the war would only happen in Taiwan and the US will aim for a " Liberate Kuwait" scenario, so stop short of trying to invade the mainland. But the war will continue agggresively in the cyber space from both beligerants, and economically with Chinese interests hurt the most in areas where US ties are strong.

Also I am curios what will the US's stance will be after they defend Taiwan. Do they revert to the status-quo or finally make a formal declaration of recognition of Taiwan and ditch the "One China Policy". If they do then I would imagine close allies will do the same leading to more economic hurt for all parties involved. 

Overall the ramifications will be more economically then political I reckon. And while the West will be no doubt hurt by this, its not unlike we experienced before and can recover easily through a "Marshall Plan" type support strategy to cut ourselves from China completely. I mean the West already started diversifying its supply chain so its will just be a continuation.

RudibertRiverhopper

For America to interwene in a potential conflict lets just put up a scenario isolating the US decision based alone on Chinas anti-ship missiles capabilities.

Can the US protect itself against Chinas anti-ship missiles, namely YJ-21? **(edit assuming China actually have missiles that can hit a moving target consistently..)**

**1) Yes:**

\- Neutralize Chinas satellite infrastructure?

\- Advanced missile defence systems? **(edit: As in it can shoot down multiple Chinese missiles with very low chance of missing)**

**2) Maybe:**

\- US lacking intelligence on Chinas military capabilities meaning their initial response will be less resolute.

\- Might deter US blue water navy to keep distance, meaning it cant engage with it's full capacity.

**3) No:**

\- Unlikely to contribute with meaningful number of military assets in the direct warzone.

\- Taiwan will be completely isolated, as Americas navy can't engage in any meaningful way.

This is of course a pretty meaningless example and overly simplified, but this is just ONE aspect of Chinas military strategy, aimed at making American involvement as difficult as possible. And it's clear that even if America can deter Chinas anti-ship missiles, it'll cost America dearly too. It's really comes down to Japan and other crucial allies in the region.

I'm not so sure America is in the first scenario, and I'm also pretty sure China has enough intel to know reasonably well how capable America is in this respect.

legendarygael1

Even without boots on the ground, there are ways a conflict could spread.

If the US and Japan intervene in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, both sides would have to contemplate "counterpunch" tactics, where use of force exposes the aggressor to risk of attack, which can slow or deter the tempo of aggression.

These tactics run the risk of instigating aggression, in either direction.  Thus Japanese or Americans might end up attacking targets in mainland China, or China might end up attacking targets in Japan, or American assets in theatre (like carrier groups).

It seems unlikely that the war could spread beyond that, though.  The Chinese have been working for decades to develop the necessary amphibious transport capability to deliver adequate forces to Taiwan (and they're not quite there, still), and their blue-water navy is fairly incapable.  Unless they resorted to strategic weapons, they simply don't have the means to project force very far overseas.

ttkciar

I would something like that:

- USA wouldn’t risk a direct war against China, but rather a proxy war Taiwan on steroids vs China;
- USA will be forced to focus almost entirely on the Indo-Pacific, loosing control in Europe and Middle-East;
- Russia and Iran could take advantage of the situation in Europe and Middle-East;
- Japan, Philippines, South Korea and Australia will be indirectly but heavily involved in the war;
- North Korea might threaten to bomb South Korea

L7Z7Z

CSIS has done a long paper on this. Good read. Answers most of your questions.

Dedpoolpicachew

The South China Sea would become a battle ground for the USN and the PLAN, and beyond the water around Taiwan; both sides will likely battle to take control of the choke points around the Philippines and Indonesia which control access in and out of the South China sea.

Beyond that l China are limited in scope to what they personally can actually do to broaden the conflict. 

China doesn’t really have the ability to project hard power beyond its region in any meaningful way yet.

I mean, at this moment in time, the PLAN is unlikely to defeat the British Royal Navy outside of China’s region, so it’s not really got much of a chance against the USN anywhere but the South &amp; East China seas.

As such in order to broaden the conflict and stretch US forces they’d probably lean on their ally in North Korea to start a shooting war at the 38th parallel.

Honestly, I don’t see the US directly entering the conflict unless China attacks the US or an ally (Taiwan not official, thinking of the Philippines, South Korea, Japan) first. They will definitely provide huge amounts of supply and intelligence to the Taiwanese and maybe covert ops, but nothing direct. 

But if the US does enter the war (whether provoked or unprovoked):

Something on the Korean peninsula is bound to kick off. Japan will hopefully help there. Russia will try stuff, but considering the state of affairs they’re in, I doubt they will be able to do much, other than with their dangerous nuclear submarines. Whether they use them in the Atlantic or the Pacific or both is unknown. Hopefully most of NATO, especially the ones with large navies, will help the US deal with Russia.

The US could blockade the Malacca Strait, preventing Middle Eastern oil from reaching China. There are some countries in the middle east who are allied with China, so more conflict there too.

India and Pakistan may join the fray, whether they attack each other or India attacks China and then Pakistan attacks India is anyone’s guess. India can help blockade the Indian Ocean to prevent oil from reaching China. 

The Philippines will probably be staging point as well, the South China Sea will be a major battleground as China tries to break the blockade in the Malacca strait. Indonesia and Malaysia probably side with China, but who knows, might not want to join a side until they’re sure they’ll pick the winning side. 

Cuba may try to start something but doubtful they’ll get very far unless the Chinese are basing their troops there. 

At the end, China may achieve local superiority around its waters, but the US will achieve superiority everywhere else and could effectively strangle China economically with blockades. If nukes are not used, North Korea falls.

Clarification: I know that most of us aren’t geopolitical experts, but I just want to clarify that I am not a geopolitical expert. 

Furthermore, this is quickly assembled thoughts about alliances around the world and how they might or might not join in on the US-China war and make it WW3.

AGFoxCloud

Australia, Philippines, Japan and South Korea likely join as well

If the US blocks the strait of Malacca, there the problem of there more countries in the world other than China

Malaysia and Vietnam also have interests in going against China because of maritime claims

Then the escalation of Korea or in the Indian subcontinent rises until either or likely both join the war

There it has the potential to go nuclear wit NK or Paquistan being the most likely ones to drop it

Meanwhile China could ask Iran to start a war in the middle east to distract the US, they sure would welcome the opportunity

And this point it's possible the Russo-Ukrainian War is still ongoing

abellapa

I expect a lot of strategic bombing from both sides if it comes down to that.

capitanmanizade


The country that shoots second is the country that wins not the country that shoots first. Our contingency plans are solid, and we are ready.

Imagine your a Chinese strategist.

You assume there is at least a pretty good chance the US is going to get involved if you invade Taiwan.

So you wargame several different scenarios, trying to find the one that offers the best chance of victory.

Eventually, you are going to find that taking US bases and ships in the Pacific off the board as early as possible is the option that offers you the highest chance of success.  For example, is it better/easier to take out a US Aircraft carrier before or after it launches all its planes?

China will almost certainly control the initiative for the initial phase of the conflict (neither the US nor Taiwan is going to engage in a war with China unless China attacks first).

This in turn leads to a high likelihood of the opening salvo of the war being not just strikes on Taiwan, but on US bases and ships across the region, using the exact same calculus as Japan in WW2 (the lessen China has taken from Pearl Harbor is not "don't do it" but "do it more effectively").

houinator

Increased military activities by China around Taiwan have escalated tensions, with the US responding through missile deployments and military exercises, highlighting regional security concerns.

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